In his April 4 piece, Mike Miller over at IJReview raises the interesting correlation between a reduction in the murder rate in Chicago since last year (for the first quarter), and Illinois starting to accept applications for concealed carry permits in January. He stops short of arguing that the correlation suggests causation, stating:
Coincidence? Hard to say. And too early to tell. Although, I doubt that the anti-gun crowd is celebrating the good news.
But this won’t stop many from immediately drawing the conclusion that the new permits have dramatically contributed to the reduced murder rate. Indeed, over time, it may become clear that the permits are having precisely this effect, but it is far too early to make this simplistic conclusion for one important reason: Chicago’s murder rate had already been dropping. In 2013 it plunged down to 1964 levels and overall crime fell down to 1972 levels. There seems to be a bigger trend at play and correlation should not be confused with causation.
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